Ingantaccen guntun Nanometer

Semiconductors ba za su iya ƙarami da yawa ba. Hakan na iya zama albishir ga kasar Sin

TAIPEI – Shekarar ta kasance 2009 kuma masana’antar guntu ta san yana da matsala. Chiang Shang-yi, a lokacin, shugaban bincike da ci gaba a Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., ya yi tunanin yana da mafita.

Maimakon matsar da ƙarin transistor a kan ƙananan kwakwalwan kwamfuta, hanyar da aka saba amfani da su don ƙarfafa su, ya ba da shawara ga maigidansa, wanda ya kafa TSMC Morris Chang, da su bincika wani yanki mai ƙarancin ci gaba na tsarin guntu wanda aka sani da kunshin guntu.

“Na gaya wa shugaba Chang cewa tun da dokar Moore na iya raguwa a cikin shekaru masu zuwa, muna iya son gwada wani abu dabam wanda zai iya ci gaba da inganta ayyukan kwamfuta na kwakwalwan kwamfuta,” in ji Chiang Nikkei Asia.

Dokar Moore, kamar yadda wanda ya kafa Intel Gordon Moore ya fara bayyanawa a cikin 1965, ya nuna cewa adadin transistor a guntu zai ninka kusan sau biyu a kowace shekara, yana sa kwakwalwan kwamfuta ta fi ƙarfin lokaci. A cikin 1975, an sake bitar hakan zuwa kowace shekara biyu.

Na farko transistor – muhimman abubuwan da ke sarrafa wutar lantarki ta hanyar kwakwalwan kwamfuta – tsayin su ne santimita, amma a cikin shekarun 1950 an auna su da millimeters. A yau, masana’antun suna magana game da nanometers – wani nau’i na DNA na mutum shine 2.5 nm a diamita. Guntu guda yanzu tana ɗaukar biliyoyin transistor.

Dokar Moore ta tsara shekarun da suka gabata na ci gaban masana’antar guntu, matakan da ya ɗauka a cikin ƙaramar haɓaka masana’antu gabaɗaya daga PC zuwa wayoyin hannu zuwa AI. Hatta ingantaccen ingantaccen aiki na gefe na iya haifar da babbar riba a cikin sarƙaƙƙiyar ayyukan kwamfuta. Misali, yawancin masana sun yi imanin cewa har yanzu filin wayewar AI yana buƙatar ikon sarrafa kwamfuta kawai ta amfani da guntu na 4 nm da ƙarami.

Yunkurin yin guntu mafi ƙanƙanta da sauri ya ga ƙananan kamfanoni, irin su TSMC, Intel na Amurka da Samsung na Koriya ta Kudu, suna kashe biliyoyin daloli a kowace shekara suna tura dokar Moore zuwa iyakarta. A cikin yin haka, sun tara babban jagora a kan masu fafatawa, suna samar da abin da ke da mahimmanci na masana’antu guda biyu inda manyan ‘yan wasa ke yin tseren gaba don samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na 2-nm nan da 2025. A halin da ake ciki masu raguwa, kamar masu sana’a na kasar Sin, sun yi ƙoƙari su zauna. a cikin wasan, musamman bayan sanarwar sarrafa fitar da kayayyaki na Amurka a cikin 2019 kuma an ƙara tsananta sau da yawa tun.

Amma akwai iyaka ga adadin transistor zai iya raguwa, kuma nawa ne za a iya cushe su cikin guntu mai girman ƙusa? Chiang, kamar da yawa a cikin masana’antar, ya daɗe yana tsoron ƙarshen dokar Moore.

“Idan da gaske dokar Moore ta kai iyakarta, za ta kawo babban tasiri ga masana’antar sarrafa kayayyaki,” in ji Chiang ga Nikkei Asia.

Ya kara da cewa, “Kamfanin guntu na iya zama masana’antar gargajiya shekaru 20 daga yanzu, maimakon fasahar zamani da ake amfani da ita a yanzu idan babu sabbin hanyoyin magance,” in ji shi.

Ko kwakwalwan kwamfuta sun taɓa zama cikakke – kamar masana’antar ƙarfe da masana’antar robobi – ya kasance batun muhawara, amma jinkirin dokar Moore da Chiang ya lura a cikin 2009 ya riga ya sami babban tasiri ga masana’antar – kuma ga geopolitics.

Chiang ya ce, “Wataƙila wannan raguwar za ta bai wa waɗanda ke kan gaba a tseren [chip], kamar China, damar kaiwa ga nasara.”